How to calculate how much you need to retire

Image by Michal Jarmoluk from Pixabay

It may come as a surprise to you that I don’t like numbers. I know, I am a fraud in the personal finance community! 

I was very anxious at the start of my FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early) journey because these numbers were just swimming in my mind. And seem so out of reach.

But there is no running away from them. 

Over the course of 18 months, as I begin to sort out my finances, the numbers are no longer dancing about as much.

Numbers like how much I need to retire; how much superannuation I have by the time I retire; how much does it cost to enter an aged care facility; what does it cost to travel every year in retirement. And on and on it goes.

My plan is to retire at 55, which is early for me.

Everyone’s circumstances are different, though. You may be paying off debt, saving for children’s college educations, looking after ailing parents …. there are endless ways in which your circumstances may differ from mine.

So how you calculate how much you need to retire may differ from me.  

How much will you spend in retirement?

According to the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA), a single person requires $27913 per year to fund a modest lifestyle and $43787 for a comfortable lifestyle. A couple needs $40194 per year for a modest lifestyle and $61786 for a comfortable lifestyle. They assume that these households own their home with no mortgage and are relatively healthy.

These numbers are a good start to figuring out what you need in retirement but they are only a guide.

No one knows your expenses as well as you do. And no one has control over how much you spend except you (speaking as a childless single person here).

The best way is to track your expenses over time. You can then use your own figures, taking into consideration your unique set of circumstances and desires for retirement living.

Looking at these numbers, determine as best as you can, which items can be eliminated when you retire. Think work related expenses – fees for professional bodies, commuting costs, professional clothing costs etc. 

Then look at what you will add in retirement. Is there anything you want to do that you don’t already do? What are your passions and hobbies? Will you do more of these in retirement? 

I understand the anxiety of wanting to get the numbers right. You don’t want to overestimate your numbers and feel you are shooting for the stars. Then again, you don’t want to underestimate them and run out of money later, say when you are in your eighties and no longer healthy, when working is out of the question.

At the end of the day, this retirement number is your best guess only and will have to be reassessed as you edge closer to your retirement date. 

And as long as you remain flexible with your expenses and able to adapt, you will be ok. For example, you may spend more in travelling one year and adjust accordingly the year after. 

Housing, transport and food

The three biggest living expenses prior to retirement will likely be the biggest in retirement too.

Some retirees move to lower cost of living cities or countries, where their money can stretch further. Or move to locations where they can enjoy their hobbies daily. Or move to a country with a climate that suit them better. 

If you are planning to move, then it’s time to research, research and research. While researching though, just estimate what your costs is likely to be and add a buffer, just in case you are incorrect. As time goes on, you will refine this number as you find out more details about your new location.

The housing question is easy for me – I have no plans to move anywhere or sell my house. I value stability and a home to return to after my travels. I would worry too much if I had to look for a place to rent. My renting experiences in my student days scarred me for life – searching for suitable places within my budget on a restricted timeline or receiving a notice that the owner is selling the home. 

Home maintenance for me is already a fairly big expense – local council rates, home and contents insurance, general garden and house maintenance. It will continue to be an expense in retirement as my house is part of my retirement plan. I will mitigate some of these expenses before I retire, by tackling any projects like replacing the gutters.

Transport will be my biggest initial cost at retirement. I will need to buy and maintain a car in retirement – these will be additional costs as I drive a work car at the moment. But since I already know about this, I can start saving for the car purchase now. And factor in car maintenance costs.

Food, glorious food – this expense for me may slightly increase in retirement if I eat out a bit more eg sit in a cafe to read or write. I eat very well now, cooking for myself and don’t feel deprived at all. But I anticipate that I may value some social interactions once I no longer interact daily with many others in the workplace. I love people watching in a cafe. 

 

Hobbies and passions

I plan to continue travelling when I retire.

How I travel may change. After all, I will now have TIME to travel slowly and explore other accommodation options or activities. I may not be able to afford expensive destinations or activities every year. But it is possible to alternate with a cheaper and closer destination every other year. 

I also envision travelling more in the first few years of retirement then winding back … who knows? My body may or may not be able to endure long distance flights in the later years. Or driving long distances around the country.

Hobbies and passions change over time too. I may fall in love with a new hobby, volunteer, develop a side hustle … anything can happen! My parents started golfing in their late fifties, and played golf until their early seventies. They still play table tennis twice a week at their Senior Citizens clubs – once again, they never played before they retired.

Health care and aged care

Health versus wealth – which would you choose?

It is no use being the richest person on earth if we can’t enjoy our money due to poor health.

Health care is an area where I am most worried about. And it has nothing to do with money. My mum has dementia and one day I may too – it is not a guarantee but it is definitely a possibility. The thought terrifies me sometimes. I feel that I need to squeeze in everything I want to experience earlier in my retirement, rather than later. Just in case.

Private health insurance is already an expense for me – this will continue in retirement. I value access to timely medical care.

It is so hard to estimate how healthy I will be later in life. The best policy is to look after myself now – eating healthily and exercising regularly. The longer I stay healthy, the better my quality of life will be in retirement. And the longer I delay in spending on medications and other health related costs, the longer my money will last.

Aged care is another concern. One day,  I will not be able to look after myself at home. I will need a carer or move into an aged care facility. Having a paid up home eases some of the financial considerations, provided that home values remain high in the next few decades. Selling my home may mitigate some of these costs and will be my final option.

 

Any other expenses

Do you have children’s weddings to contribute towards? Or perhaps parents’ medical care or their living expenses? Helping children with home ownership, education?

Maybe these are the optional extras or maybe they are non negotiable.

Factor them into your retirement number. Or start separate sinking funds for these and keep your retirement number for your lifestyle needs only. 

Final thoughts

We can’t plan for every eventuality. There are too many ‘what ifs’ in life. 

Calculating how much you need to retire can be overwhelming.

But we can start with our current expenses to make educated guesses about our future retirement expenses. And as more facts come to light or we find new ways to reduce our living expenses, we can review that number, reassess and come up with a new number.

Our initial number may be too high; we may not be able to afford that lifestyle. On the other hand, we may be pleasantly surprised that our numbers look the same (as in my case). 

Whatever the case may be, once you have a retirement number, you can actively do something about it. Start saving for non negotiable wants and desires; look at cheaper options for everything else. Assess current investing options. Ramp up working hours? Start a side hustle?

You decide on what is best for you. But start planning now. The future will be here soon.

 

Do you have a plan to retire? How did you decide on your retirement number?

When can I retire? No one believes I can retire at 55

Whenever I mention I want to retire at 55, no one believes me.

The most common reaction I get is an eye roll, followed by “Yeah, right! In your dreams!”

And then the inevitable ‘What are you going to do all day? You don’t like being bored!’

No one ever, ever asks me how I am going to achieve it. They assume that I am kidding because retiring at 55 seems such an impossible task. And simply dismiss it as another wacky idea. 

While it seems that 55 is a bit old for a FIRE blogger to retire, it is early(ish) for a late starter. I only discovered the FIRE concept 18 months ago. And 55 is a full 10 years before what is perceived as traditional retirement. And a good 12 years before the government will consider giving you a pension.  

I have a PLAN. And since no one in my real life wants to know about it, I will share it with you instead.

I love sunsets - this is Mauritius - looking forward to more sunsets in exotic locations in retirement

What is the PLAN?

First of all, I must declare up front, that I did not come up with this plan at the beginning of my FIRE journey.

No, I stumbled around. Lamenting about lost opportunities. Berating myself for not starting earlier. Regretting my spend, spend, spend lifestyle. Blah, blah, blah.

Then I just got down to it and started with the basics.

I found out my net worth and monitored it every month.

Then I started tracking my expenses seriously, not just having a vague idea of what I was spending. I reduced expenses wherever I can although frugality is not my strong suit.

I made sure I invested the gap between my income and expenses.

And now, 18 months later, I have a PLAN

There are 3 phases to my plan – Pre super*, Post super* and The end.

*Super = superannuation, our retirement account in Australia

Since I plan to retire at 55, I have 5 years before I can access my superannuation. This is an advantage of pursuing FI later in life – you have less years to plan for, until you can access funds locked up in retirement accounts. If you retire at 30, you need sufficient funds for 30 years before you can access your super.

So Phase 1 (Pre super) of my plan involves being able to survive this first 5 years. Phase 2 (Post super) kicks in when I turn 60, when I can utilise my superannuation funds. And Phase 3 (The end) will be activated when I need to move in to an aged care facility (unless there is another option).

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Phase 1 - Pre super

 

Tracking my net worth shows me that the majority of my net worth (a whopping 92%) is tied up in fixed assets ie my house and superannuation. Which will be useful for Post super and The End phases.

Not useful at all for the Pre super phase. I need sufficient investment outside of superannuation to ensure I survive the first 5 years of retirement. 

Investment outside of superannuation for me means a share portfolio and cash.

Right now, I have a fully funded emergency fund and various sinking funds – for travel and annual expenses, held as cash in online high interest saving accounts.

My biggest expense at retirement is to purchase a car, as I will no longer have access to a company car from work. So I am conscious this is something I need to start saving for. 

I will need a cash buffer, preferably 2-3 years of living expenses to counter sequence of returns risk, just in case the stock market crashes at the precise time I retire.

That cash reserve will also need to cater for home maintenance costs. I need to ensure my house is in good shape, to reap its benefits for Phase 3 – The end.

So my current strategy is to invest every spare cent in my share portfolio, taking into consideration living expenses and sinking funds. Sorry, I have to live, you know. That travel fund is not going to fund itself and I am not not travelling the next 7 years.

I will not be using the 4% rule in this phase. I don’t have time to build my savings and investments up to 7 figures, in order to withdraw 4% from it. This amount need not last forever either – just 5 years. 

 

Phase 2 - Post super

I am most excited about this Post super phase.

Unbeknownst to me, I have been tracking well on this front. I cannot stress the importance of automating retirement savings enough. Even though I did not do it right 100% of the time, 70% to 80% was enough to set me up to be in a good position.

So what I did right with superannuation was that I contributed extra on and off throughout my whole working life.

When I first started working in 1992, a family friend convinced me to open a superannuation account with AMP. This was an additional account, a separate account outside of my employer’s contribution. All I had to do was deposit $2000 (after tax) each year – this increased every year to cater for inflation. 

Some years when I felt I didn’t have extra money, I did not contribute or I contributed less than what I was invoiced for. Eventually I stopped contributing altogether. I never budgeted for it and found it hard to come up with an annual lump sum, what with paying a mortgage and travelling.

I have no idea what sort of fund it was invested in, no idea on its asset allocation or the fees charged. All I know is that some years, the return was in double digits and some years it was negative. Yes, negative.

All up, I contributed $41000 over the years. And when I finally looked at it in 2018, my balance was $83000! However, they charged me around $4000 in exit fees so my ‘roll over’ amount was only $79000 when I transferred it to my main account.

I am sure if I had paid attention over the years, especially to the fees and the type of fund it was invested in, the returns would have been much better. But I consider it a good result in light of my neglect and failure to contribute every year.

In the meantime, my main superannuation account where my employer contributions were deposited, was also steadily growing. Before I bought my house, I salary sacrificed a small amount every week – on the advice of my accountant who sees his main job as saving me taxes. The amount I salary sacrificed reduced my taxable income, hence I paid less tax.

Even though I stopped salary sacrificing while I had my mortgage, the balance was still growing. Once again, I had no idea what my balance was or how it was invested. Or the fees charged. Or the insurance premiums deducted. Until last year.

I started salary sacrificing again in 2018 and aimed to deposit the maximum of $25000 pre tax including my employer’s contribution. Once I stop working, contributions from my employer will stop. I am conscious I have 7 more years to optimise this phase.

The 4% rule will apply for this Post super phase. And the amount will need to last forever. 

 

Phase 3 - The end

With any luck, I do not need to activate this phase until I am in my 80s, when I can no longer look after myself in my own home. Most likely this means I have to move into an aged care facility. Who knows what aged care options will be available then? I sincerely hope there are other alternatives available.

My paid up house will be sold to generate extra funds to pay for aged care. There is no guarantee what house values will be then. But I can rest easy knowing I have an asset that will contribute towards the cost of aged care. And in the meantime, it will have provided stable and comfortable shelter for many years.

There should also be some money left over from Phase 2, in case house prices are really bad at the time when I need to sell. And in the worse case scenario, there may be the aged pension from the Commonwealth government if it still exists. The pension, that is, not the government.

 

Where am I at now?

 

I aim to have a mix of 30% cash and 70% shares for the Pre super phase 1. Right now, I am at 17% of cash target and 50% of shares target. Amazingly, I am also at 50% of my target for the Post super phase 2. Of course, this is all due to the strong share market at the moment.

The Rule of 72 is a simple calculation to estimate when an investment could double. Divide 72 by the rate of return to calculate when an initial investment will double. So assuming a rate of return of 8%, I could double my investment in 9 years. 

This is very reassuring as it means even if I never contribute another cent, my shares and super (majority invested in shares) should double in 9 years, provided we can maintain a rate of return of 8% or better.

And this is where the uncertainty lies. Are we heading into a recession? Will the strong performance of our share market continue? Past performance does not predict future performance, blah blah blah.

The only thing I can control is how much I contribute to savings and investments. I decide how much to allocate to cash and shares outside of super and assess if I need to continue salary sacrificing the maximum amount into super. 

So I will continue to automate savings and track my net worth. I will adjust and pivot as necessary; and celebrate each milestone. 

Fingers crossed, if nothing drastic happens to my life circumstances, I should be able to reach my goal in the next 7 years. 

Final thoughts

There, you have it – my 3 Phase plan to retire at 55. 

I am trying very hard not to second guess myself. 

It is not the end of the world if I can’t achieve my targets by 55. I can always work part time from 55 until 60, when I can access super.

Looking at the cold hard figures and barring any unexpected life altering events, I am confident I will reach my target within the 7 year timeframe.

 And retire early at 55.  

 

What are your thoughts on my plan? Do you think it is sound? I would love to hear about your plans too - please share them in the comments below

Retire early at 55 - I have a plan | Retiring Early

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